On January 19th, 2010 the voters of Massachusetts fired a shot heard around Capitol Hill. The seat of the Liberal Lion and strongest advocate for Comprehensive Healthcare Reform, Ted Kennedy, was lost by democrats and placed into Republican hands.
The election drew relatively low press in the months leading up to it. Martha Coakley and her democratic team passed over Brown’s challenge as if it were nothing to worry about, but oh was she wrong. In the end, Coakley (D) would lose 47% to 52% (CNN Poll) in a state Barack Obama carried by 21% in November of 2008. Coakley appeared to have it in the bag, leading two weeks before the election by a 31% margin (Suffolk Poll). Clearly something happened, and that something was the MA voter looking to the top and not being satisfied.
Within one of the most liberal states in the union, a bedrock for liberals and democrats, Scott Brown pulled off one of the biggest wins in years. With his victory the Republicans gained their 41st seat in the Senate, removing the filibuster proof Democratic majority that had reigned over Capitol Hill since the 2008 election and the ability for democrats to operate without bipartisan support. While Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi vowed following the election results to pass Healthcare Reform, it appears that this is more wishful thinking than an actual guarantee that healthcare proponents can take to the bank. So what does this election mean for President Obama and his agenda?
First, the Obama administration cannot allow his spin doctors and strategists to curry his favor and say this was not about him, IT WAS. MA exit polls show that many voters saw voting for Scott Brown as a rebuke of the democratic agenda on Capitol Hill, an agenda Obama has reigned over. Obama must make his views clear on healthcare and on job creation. For too long he has allowed the left of his party to draft policy and then be the main arbiters of debate. This has been a serious problem.
In the president’s defense, however, in 1994 when then President Clinton tried to pass healthcare reform, he let his views be the first to be espoused. Once these were ripped to shreds by various groups, President Clinton’s plan was inoperable and reform failed. Obama, instead, went the other route: let the House and Senate draft bills and then I’ll make changes. Only problem with this is that the American people never knew where he stood (and still don’t), allowing his opponents to be in control of his image= MA Senate Race 2010. Obama must thus take a stand and let his views be known. He should take John McCain’s invitation and reach out to Republicans, which he appeared to do in the State of the Union. A White House bill with bipartisan features would do him some good at this point.
Second, President Obama, it’s the economy, stupid! The people want jobs…jobs, jobs, and more jobs! People want to work and they want to feel as if their president share’s their insecurities and concerns. Thus, MA exit polls once again showed that Obama was out of touch with MA voters, meaning, he wasn’t focused on what they were focused on. Scott Brown’s most high profile ad showed President John F. Kennedy delivering a speech about job creation through tax cuts and then Brown finishing the speech. This ad resonated with MA voters and was one of the main reasons Brown was able to reach across party lines and draw in Conservative Democrats and Independents. However, all is not lost for the Obama administration. They’ve caught on to this and during the State of the Union address, President Obama made a point to address job creation with various measures. If the president shifts his focus to job creation during this second year, a year which is poised to see the economy improve naturally, he may be able to shine as Reagan did in his second year.
Lastly, the MA election made a strong comment on the role of International Law in America. Scott Brown made a concerted effort during the election to demonstrate his toughness on terrorism and his opposition to Obama’s plan to try terrorists in civilian courts asking Martha Coakley if she would read Osama bin-Laden his Miranda Rights. Americans don’t understand the Obama administration’s attempt to try Khalid Shaq-Mohammod in New York because the Obama administration has not done a well enough job explaining it. Here’s the rub, the Obama administration is trying terrorists in our nation’s courts because that is legally what they are bound to do. Terrorism is an act that is Crime Against Humanity by International Law, and though during the Bush administration, international law wasn’t that big of a deal, to normalize relations with other countries around the world, the Obama administration has taken certain steps. This concept also applies to Gitmo, which also, according to international law, is illegal. That argument is neither here nor there, but what is important is that the MA results on this particular issue show that the Obama administration has demonstrated a capacity to communicate its views and principles.
What can be said about MA then? The MA special elections were the gift the Obama administration needed. No longer will he be a captive of his party’s liberal agenda, but he now will be forced to work through bipartisan support. Before, if his party had an idea and 60 votes, because of political normalcy, he was almost bound to support it, i.e. the house and senate healthcare bills.
Scott Brown’s victory allows Obama to clear his guns and get some new ammunition. He started the healthcare issue on the advisement of Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, who saw the end of their supermajority in 2010, but with this change happening earlier, Obama and his party have a new war to learn from and new tactics to develop over the course of the next several months. For this reason, the Obama administration can reinvent itself before Clinton had to, and because the economy is set to improve and a more bipartisan regime will be on the Hill in the fall, Republicans will have less ammunition to shell Obama and his administration with. This translates into a nice environment to reestablish one’s presidency. Like Reagan, Obama is poised to reign over a resurgent economy, and if he can swing it right, we might wake up to a good morning in America. If he continues with Pelosi and Reid, we might here yet again, the stampede of the Grand Ole Party.
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